2020-06-12

吉尔吉斯共和国前总理、我院特聘教授:疫情后的生活方式将大不一样

吉尔吉斯共和国前总理、我院特聘教授卓奥马尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫 (Djoomart Otorbaev)日前在中国环球电视网 (CGTN) 上发表题为《疫情后的生活方式将大不一样》的英文文章。他表示,疫情冲击或将使一些行业和人们的生活方式发生变化。




 


吉尔吉斯共和国前总理、我院特聘教授卓奥马尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫 (Djoomart Otorbaev) 6月2日在CGTN网上发表英文文章,阐述疫情后人们生活方式的改变。以下是经翻译后的中文版内容。

 

4月6日在德国柏林,一名带着口罩的骑车人。/新华社

 

世界78亿人口中的大多数人可能曾经或现在仍处于某种程度的封锁状态,以控制新冠疫情的蔓延。

 

人们的活动受到严重限制,许多工厂、商店、街道空无一人,酒店旅游业停工,宾馆、饭店、航空业面临着灾难性的危机,边境也被关闭了。我们只能坐在家里,通过智能手机与世界交流。

 

但非接触行业却在爆炸性地增长。人工智能、物联网、机器人、数字协作、图像识别、虚拟工作空间、在线会议等非接触技术获得了巨大的推动力。

 

因此,当这场危机结束后,我们周围的世界将变得非常不同。谁知道呢,也许人类会摆脱过去一些基本的、长期存在的习惯,比如工作周或工作日?

 

那些为了拯救生命而“只是暂时性”执行的措施,也许会永久性地改变我们未来的生活原则。许多被认为只是应对危机的决定或暂时设立的制度,将在未来作为新习惯和新制度保留下来。

 

许多心理学家都认为,习惯是不容易改变的,因为无论是在私人生活还是在工作中,惯有的做法通常能有效地实现目标。

 

人们普遍认为,长久的习惯很难改变。大多数人试图用意志力来改变习惯,这不是个好策略。按新习惯来做不难,难的是在开头形成新习惯。

 

但地震般的疫情冲击使我们的生活方式发生了根本性的变化。我们在日常生活中被迫换了种方式做事、生活。

 

在被封锁的几周内,人们的工作、休息、社交、与家人、朋友和同事的沟通方式都不同了。

 

所以在危机期间很有可能会形成新的习惯。大多数心理学家普遍认为,平均两个月多一点的时间就足以养成一个新习惯。而我们自我隔离的时间应该比这个时间更长。

 

疫情迫使商业和教育行业发生了历史性的变化,人们体验到了许多以前被放在一边的工具,人们在疫情前还是习惯用老办法。

 

当然,隔离和保持“社交距离”是违背人类本性的。于是,本性是社会性动物的人类,很快就通过上网来社交。

 

2020年5月28日,顾客在北马其顿斯科普里的一家餐厅吃午饭。/新华网

 

根据Statista网站的数据,中国人每天上网的时间比一年前增长了30%,达到了每天5小时。而手机软件分析商App Annie的报告则说,在过去的四年,安卓设备上的典型手机软件的使用时间每年增长约6-7%,但在2020年第一季度增加了20%。

 

在意大利,这个数据在3月份比2019年第四个季度增长了30%。疫情将我们提前推到了虚拟现实生活中。尤其是老年人和原来远离网络的人开始积极加入到网民队伍中。

 

随着对传统形式的讲座和考试禁止,大中小学继续以远程的形式工作。

 

大多数学校都提供了在线课程,人们无论在哪都学习。一些顶尖大学的课程中已包含了上百门在线课程。

 

学校正在开发数字平台,为课程教学和独立研究的提供了许多选择。新技术将使教育更少正襟危坐,而是更加分散灵活。大多数教育机构将成为内容的生产者,科技巨头都在积极投资这一领域。

 

传统的教育产品将不再受大学(学校)的青睐,数字互动系统将取代传统教科书的位置。通过新的教育生态系统,小学和中学教育的区别将消失。

 

类似的趋势也在娱乐行业发生。大多数人都在转向流媒体平台。家庭娱乐的需求高涨,网飞和迪斯尼+不得不将影片画质降低25%,以保证服务顺畅。

 

在检测、隔离和预防疫情的过程中,大数据和人工智能获得了特别关注。政府利用这些技术整合各种信息源,可以对个人的身份、行踪,甚至对健康状况进行整理和处理。

 

由于人们必须为其他潜在的流行病做好准备,这将刺激大数据技术的进一步发展,提高人们利用大数据了解社会的能力。大数据对个人私生活的深入渗透将成为必然。

 

未来,人们将更加关注公共卫生的质量。远程监测、复杂的数字诊断,以及新一代的各种药物,如智能药片等,都会有相当快的进步。

 

体联网(IoB),即通过摄取、植入或以某种方式与人体相连的设备,这种与人体相连的物联网(IoT)将更快地改变我们的世界。一旦连接,就可以交换数据。身体和设备将被远程监控和控制。                                                                                                                                 

 (廖舟译)

 

卓奥玛尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫(Djoomart Otorbaev)6月2日在CGTN发表的英文原文如下:

 

Lifestyles after the pandemic will be different

 

By Djoomart Otorbaev

 

Editor's note: Djoomart Otorbaev is the former Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, a distinguished professor of Emerging Markets Institute of Beijing Normal University, and a member of Nizami Ganjavi International Center. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

 

Probably the majority of the world's 7.8 billion people were or are still thought to be under some kind of COVID-19 lockdown in an attempt to control the spread of the disease.

 

Movements of people are severely restricted, many factories, shops, and streets are empty, the hospitality industry is suspended, hotels, restaurants, and airplanes are in catastrophic crisis, borders are closed. We are sitting at home and communicating with the world through our smartphones.

 

But non-contact industries expand explosively. Contactless instruments like artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, robots, digital collaboration, image recognition, virtual workspaces, and online conferences have got huge impetus.

 

As a result, when this crisis ends, the world around us will turn out to be very different. Who knows, perhaps humanity will get rid of a few fundamental and long-lived fetishes of the past, such as the workweek or workday?

 

The changes which are introduced "just temporarily" to save the lives would change the principles with which we will live in the future, perhaps permanently. Many of those perceived as simply anti-crisis decisions or temporarily established institutions will remain as new habits and new institutions of the future.

 

Many psychologists agree that habits are not easy to change since the established practices continue to be effective in achieving the goals in both private lives and businesses.

 

It is generally accepted that serious habits are hard to change because most people try to change them with the use of willpower, which is a poor strategy for changing habits. Doing is not a problem; it is the starting of something new that complicates the attempt.

 

But the global pandemic as the seismic shock has brought fundamental changes to our style of life. Now in daily lives, we forced to do things and behave in different ways.

 

Being in lockdowns for many weeks people are working, resting, socializing, and communicating with the family, friends, and colleagues differently.

 

So it is a good chance that during the crisis new habits will have all chances to gain a foothold. As it is generally accepted by most psychologists a bit more than two months on average is enough to develop a new habit. But the duration of our self-isolation is supposed to be longer than this period.

 

Pandemics are forcing historic changes in the worlds of business and education to perceive many of the tools that they have been normally avoiding, believing the old ways still work best.

 

Surely, the quarantines and "social distancing" policies are against the human nature. Thus the humans, who are by nature the social animals, quickly went online to communicate and to socialize.

 

According to Statista, in China, daily time spent online grew 30 percent to five hours per day on average from a year earlier. According to the report from App Annie, a mobile performance standard, while typical daily time spent in apps on Android devices grew around six-to- seven percent per year in the last four years, only in the first quarter of 2020 it increased by 20 percent.

 

In Italy, it grew 30 percent in March from the last quarter of 2019. The pandemic pushes us ahead of time to live in virtual reality. In particular, the elderly and people who are far from the Internet began to actively replenish the ranks of Internet users.

 

With the ban of lectures and exams with conventional physical participation, the schools and universities did not stop but continue to work, this time remotely.

 

People wherever they are in, are taking virtual courses at most schools and universities. Already now in advanced universities, the curriculum contains hundreds of online courses.

 

Digital platforms are being developed in schools that offer many options for lessons and independent work. New technologies will make education less formal and more distributed. Most educational institutions will enter the streams of content production. The top tech giants are actively investing in this area.

 

Classic educational products will lose university (school) academic status, and digital interactive systems will conquer the place of traditional textbooks. Through new educational ecosystems, the distinction between primary and secondary education will be disappearing.

 

Similar tendencies are happening in the entertainment industry. Most people are turning to streaming platforms. Demand for home entertainment is so high that Netflix and Disney+ services have announced they are going to reduce their picture quality by 25 percent so that the internet doesn't get bottle-necked.

 

During detection, isolation, and prevention of pandemic, special attention is given to big data and artificial intelligence instruments. The integration of various sources of information using those technologies will allow the governments to organize and process the identification of individuals, their movements, and even health status.

 

Since people must get prepared for other potential pandemics, it will stimulate further development of big data technologies and improve the ability of people to use big data to understand society. Deeper penetration of big data into the private lives of individuals would become inevitable.

 

Much more attention will be given in the future to the quality of public health. Remote monitoring, sophisticated digital diagnostics, and a new generation of various medicines and drugs, like smart pills will advance fairly quickly.

 

Internet of Bodies (IoB), which is the Internet of Things (IoT) connected with the human body through devices that are ingested, implanted, or connected to the body in some way will change our world even quicker. Once connected, data can be exchanged. The bodies and devices will be remotely monitored and controlled.

 

文章来源:CGTN